PAPERS

Working paper. Agent-based Howitt–Clower economy: endogenous shops, private stablecoin venues, a stylized outside public rail. The model studies how targeted versus broad access to the public rail changes the survival of private settlement infrastructure in finite-horizon runs. Architecture comparisons, not welfare claims. The simulation harness and trial structure are described in the working draft; specific horizon lengths and seed counts are still subject to revision.

Using the 2010, 2015, and 2020/2021 datasets of the IMF's Central Bank Legislation Database (CBLD), we explore AI and ML approaches to analyzing patterns in central bank legislation. A simple Naïve Bayes algorithm links CBLD search categories with significant and increasing accuracy to specific articles and phrases; specific themes emerge across legislation (governance, policy and operations, stakeholders and transparency); other AI/ML approaches yield interesting results meriting further research.

Peer-reviewed journal version of the 2022 IMF FinTech Note. Examines the energy and environmental implications of crypto assets based on their distinct design elements — consensus mechanism (proof-of-work vs. alternatives) and control over the underlying architecture (permissionless vs. permissioned). Finds that non-PoW permissioned networks are significantly more energy efficient than current card processing, and discusses implications for designing environmentally friendly CBDCs. Author order as published in Ecological Economics 212, October 2023 (article 107888).

The IMF FinTech Note precursor to the 2023 Ecological Economics paper above. Compares the energy implications of consensus mechanisms and network architecture, including permissioned, non-PoW designs and card processing. The author order shown here follows the 2022 IMF note.

Discusses the impact of rapid AI/ML adoption in the financial sector: benefits for deepening and efficiency, concerns about widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. Distills unique risks to financial-system integrity and stability, surveys policy challenges, and outlines potential regulatory approaches as the technology continues to evolve.

Examines the potential implications of quantum computing for computation, communication and cryptographic security in finance. Discusses risks to existing encryption and financial stability, and recommends assessing exposure, inventorying cryptographic algorithms and developing the capacity to migrate to new standards.

Presents the Central Bank of Brazil IT department's research on Distributed Ledger Technology: analysis of potential use cases, examination of available platforms, and working prototypes of a minimal Real Time Gross Settlement System. Describes perceived privacy issues encountered during implementation and proposes a naive approach to address them.

Taxation of Digital Assets (2016) — short survey on how governments around the world were dealing with the taxation of bitcoin activity circa 2016, using bitcoin as a proxy for all cryptocurrencies. Blockchains, a report (2016) — introduction to blockchain technology covering history, technical aspects, reward systems, related patents, and practical applications, with bitcoin as the primary example. Both available on this site's papers shelf.

HCI study on crowdsourced feedback ordering. Mechanical Turk workers provided feedback on website designs across four interface configurations (rating first, critique first, rating only, critique only). Results: while freeform-only led to longer reviews with more negative comments, the order of numerical rating and written review did not affect ratings or the content, length, or quality of written reviews.